The Annual Report 2021, demonstrating that the global maritime security picture in 2021 was defined by an ever-increasing complex web of threat actors.
Indian Ocean
Since the end of 2012, incidents of piracy within the northern Indian Ocean have gradually given way to complex geopolitical narratives. 2021 saw another year of commercial operators contending with the risks of operating within an environment that is broadly defined by state based or state backed threats against shipping.
The decline in the threat from piracy in the region represents both positives and negatives for the wider commercial shipping market. Whilst traditional maritime security threats are almost negligible throughout an area once plagued by piracy, the contemporary operating environment within 2021 has seen another year of threats that pose significant questions for the future securitisation of commercial shipping.
One of the most striking features of the maritime security landscape within 2021 was the apparent feeling of impotence by commercial operators in the face of asymmetric and state backed threats. Indeed, the change from old foes to new has given rise to an uncomfortable new reality that sees commercial operators with limited recourse to mitigate these threats.
Lower Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
In 2021, six incidents were recorded within the Gulf of Aden, and Bab al Mandab Strait. All were recorded as suspicious approaches. The area has historically seen incidents reported south of Aden, often in the vicinity of Point A, IRTC, with occasional historic clusters south of the Yemeni ports of Al Mukkalah and Nishtun.
The six recorded reports are significantly less than the 13 recorded within 2020, which also included 3 incidents that could be reasonably characterised as attacks. A notable feature of reporting within the Bab al Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden in 2021, beyond the declining numbers, was the consistent reference to ladders being sighted in approaching vessels. The logical inference in such reporting is that there remains a piratical intent throughout the wider area.
However, there remains a near total absence of incident reporting that would indicate this was the case.
The lower Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are two areas where state-based, and state-backed threats are increasingly setting the security agenda and yet 2021 remained a year of few incidents. Despite this, the lower Red Sea remains an area where the threat remains at its most complex and potent within specific localised areas and conditions.
Amongst a range of state-based and state-backed threats, Iranian backed Houthi rebel activity remains the most consistent threat throughout the lower Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Well-developed trends indicate a clear set of attack methodologies and targeting preferences used by Houthi rebels, to both dominate their perceived area of immediate strategic influence and oppose Saudi coalition forces.
2021 was a relatively benign year for Houthi maritime activity. However, it is highly likely that previous trends of incident reporting will likely continue to feature throughout the region into 2022.
West Africa
The decline in piracy throughout West Africa in 2021 saw overall incidents of piracy and maritime crime decline by 56% compared to 2020. Incidents of actual and attempted attacks and vessels being fired upon dropped by more than 85%. The number of vessels boarded throughout the region fell by 54%. Incidents of vessels being boarded, and crews kidnapped declined by 60%.
There are, however, differing narratives which might explain the rapid decline in piracy. Within Nigeria, the decline in piracy throughout 2021 has been heralded as the result of the implementation of the $195M Integrated National Security and Waterways Protection Infrastructure, also known as the Deep Blue Project (DBP).
Overall incidents of offshore piracy in West Africa may have reduced throughout 2021, yet the core onshore components that drive piracy, and threaten vessels and crews operating within the region remain unaltered. The integrity of the declining trend will be conditional upon long term political investment and continued focus upon the maritime domain, which is less than assured in a country as complex as Nigeria.
South East Asia
A total of 77 incidents were recorded in Southeast Asia 2021. This compares to 65 in 2020. Clear disparities at the sub-region level can be observed amongst the incident data. Decreases in incidents were seen in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the Sulu-Celebes Seas.
Whereas there was a strong increase in incidents recorded in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS), which remains the hotspot for maritime crime in Southeast Asia. All of the incidents in Southeast Asia in 2021 were attacks, boardings, or attempts. No incidents of piracy or kidnapping were reported.
A total of 49 incidents were reported in the SOMS (46 in the Singapore Strait and 3 in the Malacca Strait) in 2021 compared to 34 incidents in 2020 (26 in the Singapore Strait and 8 in the Malacca Strait).
The numbers reported in the SOMS equate to more than half of all incidents across Southeast Asia. Within the SOMS, 43 incidents occurred in the eastbound lane of the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS), three in the westbound lane of the TSS, and three in the precautionary area. Within this there has been a growing clustering of incidents off Indonesia’s Bintan and Batam islands, where 38 incidents were reported between them.
Libya
Commercial traffic returned to Libya in increasing volume in 2021 in line with resumption of oil flow for export. Since the October 2020 ceasefire, Libya’s oil fields and terminals have progressively reopened and resumed operations. However, instances of force majeure, often driven by pay disputes, political disagreement and job demand continue to result in sudden and unexpected closure and supply disruption.
Whilst the ceasefire has continued to hold, during 2021 Libya remains divided between the LNA and GNA. 2021 saw several limited military exchanges between rival militia groups. These are principally located in Western Libya in the region around Tripoli and Zawiya. Throughout 2021 the onshore security situation remained characterised by instability and political, legislative, economic, and social division at all levels of society. In comparison the maritime domain continues to be relatively benign for commercial operations.